季节性流感与气象因素相关性的系统评价

郭倩; 陈涛; 周罗晶

引用本文: 郭倩, 陈涛, 周罗晶. 季节性流感与气象因素相关性的系统评价[J]. 疾病监测. shu

Citation: Qian Guo, Tao Chen and Luojing Zhou. Correlation between seasonal influenza and meteorological factors: a systematic review[J]. Disease Surveillance. shu

季节性流感与气象因素相关性的系统评价

郭倩 ^{1

,} ,
陈涛 ^{2

,

,} ,
周罗晶 ^{3

,

,}

1.
扬州大学医学院预防医学教研室，江苏扬州 225001
2.
中国疾病预防控制中心病毒病预防控制所国家流感中心，世界卫生组织流感参比和研究合作中心，北京 102206
3.
扬州大学临床医学院科技处，江苏扬州 225001

作者简介: 郭倩，女，江苏省泰州市人，医学硕士，主要从事流感病毒相关研究，Email：2411872586@qq.com;

通信作者: 陈涛, chentao@cnic.org.cn 周罗晶, luojing76@163.com

摘要: 目的对季节性流感活动水平与气象因素之间的相关关系进行探讨。方法计算机检索PubMed、Cochrane图书馆、OVID、EBSCO、Web of Science等英文电子数据库中有关流感与气象因素相关性的文献，检索文献截至2019年5月，语种限定为英文。共纳入45篇有效文献，包括实验室和流行病学研究，并将流行病学研究的研究地点按不同气候区进行分层，提取和整理分析纳入文献的基本信息、研究的气象因素、统计方法等。结果大多数流行病学研究使用了某种类型的回归分析，温带地区流感活动与低温低湿关系显著；亚热带和热带地区流感活动与气温和湿度之间的关联较为复杂且不一致，而降雨似乎会造成热带地区流感活动水平的升高。结论温带地区寒冷干燥和热带地区潮湿多雨的环境因素与流感流行关系密切，但关于太阳辐射、风速、大气压等气象因素对流感活动影响的信息仍然有限。

关键词:

流感 /
季节性 /
气象因素 /
系统评价

English

Correlation between seasonal influenza and meteorological factors: a systematic review

Qian Guo ^{1

,} ,
Tao Chen ^{2

,

,} ,
Luojing Zhou ^{3

,

,}

1.
Preventive Medicine Department, Yangzhou Medical College, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225001, Jiangsu, China
2.
Chinese National Influenza Center, National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention; WHO collaborating Center for Reference and Research on Influenza, Chinese Center for Disease Control and prevention, Beijing 102206, China
3.
Department of Science and Technology, Clinical Medical School of Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225001, Jiangsu, China

Corresponding author: Tao Chen, chentao@cnic.org.cn Luojing Zhou, luojing76@163.com

Received Date: 2020-09-14
Available Online: 2020-12-30

Abstract: ObjectiveTo explore the correlation between seasonal influenza activity level and meteorological factors.MethodsA literature retrieval of papers about influenza activity and meteorological factors published by May 2019 in English electronic databases, such as Pubmed, Cochrane Library, OVID, EBSCO and Web of Science, was conducted. A total of 45 qualified literatures were included, including laboratory and epidemiological surveys. Research sites of epidemiological studies were stratified according to different climatic regions, and basic information, meteorological factors and statistical methods of the included literatures were extracted, classified and analyzed.ResultsMost epidemiological studies used some type of regression analysis. Influenza activity in temperate region was significantly associated with low temperature and low humidity. The correlation between influenza activity and temperature or humidity in subtropical and tropical regions were complex and inconsistent, and rainfall might increase the level of influenza activity in tropical region.ConclusionEnvironmental factors, such as cold and dry climate in temperate region and humid and rainy climate in tropical region, are closely related to influenza activity, but the information about the influence of meteorological factors, such as solar radiation, wind speed, and atmospheric pressure, on influenza activity is still limited.

Key words:

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图 1 文献检索流程

Figure 1. Flow chart of literature retrieval

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 电子检索策略（以Pubmed为例）

Table 1. Electronic retrieval strategy (taking Pubmed as an example)

代码	检索词
1	流感：influenza OR flu ti/ab
2	气温：temperature OR cold OR hot OR warm OR cool
3	湿度：humidity OR dryness OR wetness
4	气流：airflow OR airstream OR wind speed OR air speed OR (global atmospheric)
5	气压：pressure
6	天气：weather OR sunny OR rainy OR snowy OR cloudy OR overcast OR windy
7	季节：seasonal OR spring OR summer OR autumn OR fall OR winter
8	气候：climate
9	日照：sunlight OR insolation OR sunshine OR ((ultraviolet ray) OR UV)
10	降雨：rainfall OR precipitation OR rain OR snow OR hail
11	2 OR 3 OR 4 OR 5 OR 6 OR 7 OR 8 OR 9 OR 10
12	1 AND 11
13	activity OR mortality OR outbreak OR epidemic OR (annunal peak) OR (seasonality characterizing) OR (seasonal features)
14	12 AND 13

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表 2 纳入以人口为基础的流行病学研究基本信息

Table 2. Basic information for population-based epidemiological research

研究国家/地区	研究年份	流感活动指标	气象因素	统计方法	文献
温带地区
西班牙桑坦德	1999−2000	流感诊断病例数	T、RH	Pearson相关	［9］
德国美因茨	2001−2006	流感相关住院率	T、RH、WV、P	Spearman秩相关、偏相关	［10］
苏格兰爱丁堡	2009−2015	流感阳性数	T、RH	Logistic回归	［11］
美国纽约	1975−2002	P&I死亡率	T、Td	线性回归	［12］
英格兰、威尔士	1996−1997	流感相关死亡数	T	相关分析	［13］
美国	1972−2002	P&I死亡率	T、RH、AH、SRAD	相关分析、SIRS模型	［14］
美国（359个县）	1973−2002	流感相关死亡率	T、SH	回归分析	［15］
日本（46个县）^a	1991−1995、1999−2009	流感病例数	AH、RH	线性回归	［16］
荷兰	1970−2011	ILI病例数（R_O）	AH	回归分析	［17］
西班牙	2010−2015	ILI%×流感阳性率	Td、RF	广义线性负二项式混合模型	［18］
美国（35个城市）	2002−2005	流感相关住院数	T、Td、SRAD	贝叶斯分层模型	［19］
中国葫芦岛市	2012−2015	ILI病例数	T、RH	Spearman秩相关、 GAM	［20］
德国柏林、斯洛文尼亚卢布尔雅那、西班牙卡斯蒂利亚-莱昂	2006−2011 ^b	ILI/ARI病例数× 流感阳性率	T、SH、RF、SRAD	GAM	［21］
亚热带地区
日本冲绳	2007−2014	流感阳性率	T、RH	Spearman秩相关	［22］
日本东京	1987−1997	流感病例数	T、RH	逐步回归	［23］
中国苏州	2000−2011	流感相关住院率	T、RH、RF、H、WV	Spearman秩相关、偏相关	［24］
印度勒克瑙	2010−2012	流感阳性率	T、RH、Td、RF、WV、P	Logistic回归	［25］
新西兰奥克兰	1980−2009	P&I死亡率	T、Td	线性回归	［26］
中国江苏	2013−2016	ILI病例数× 流感阳性率	T	DLNM	［27］
中国台湾	1999−2006	流感发病率	T、RH	Poisson回归模型	［28］
以色列（6个地区）	2006−2011	ILI/ARI病例数× 流感阳性率	T、SH、RF、SRAD	GAM	［21］
热带地区
乌干达恩德培	2007−2015	流感阳性率	T、RH、AH、RF	Logistic回归	［29］
法属圭亚那	2006−2010	ILI病例数	SH、RF	动态回归	［30］
肯尼亚	2007−2013	流感活动开始周、流感病例数	T、SH、RF	Logistic和负二项式回归	［31］
喀麦隆雅温得	2009−2015	流感阳性率	T、RH、RF	线性回归	［32］
中国香港	1997−2006	流感病例数	T、RH	相关分析	［33］
中国香港	2002−2009	P&I死亡率	T、RH、RF	逐步回归	［34］
印度加尔各答	2007−2008	流感阳性数	T、RH、RF	相关分析	［35］
马达加斯加塔那那利佛	2002−2012 ^b	流感阳性数	T、RH、RF	Spearman秩相关	［36］
萨尔瓦多、危地马拉、巴拿马	2008−2013 ^b	流感阳性率	T、SH、RF	Logistic回归	［37］
哥斯达黎加、洪都拉斯、尼加拉瓜	2008−2013 ^b	流感阳性率2	T、SH、RF	Logistic回归	［38］
新加坡	1990−1994	流感阳性率	RF	Spearman秩相关、Box-Jenkins回归-ARIMA	［39］
越南	1993−2010	ILI	AH	回归树分析	［40］
注：T：气温（℃）；RH：相对湿度（%）；AH：绝对湿度（g/m³）；SH：比湿度（g/kg）；Td：露点温度（℃）；RF：降雨量（mm）；WV：风速（m/s）；P：大气压（hpa）；SRAD：太阳辐射（W/m³）；H：日照时间（h）ILI：流感样病例；P&I：肺炎及流感；DLNM：分布滞后非线性模型；ARIMA：自回归综合移动平均线；GAM：广义相加模型；SIRS模型：由S（易感染者）、I（感染者）和R（恢复者）组成，并假设恢复者一定时间（渐渐失去免疫力）后又变为易感染者。^a该文献研究地区不包括亚热带地区的冲绳县；^b该文献不包括2009年流感大流行时期

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沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院沈阳 110142

季节性流感与气象因素相关性的系统评价

作者简介: 郭倩，女，江苏省泰州市人，医学硕士，主要从事流感病毒相关研究，Email：2411872586@qq.com;

通信作者: 陈涛, chentao@cnic.org.cn 周罗晶, luojing76@163.com

English

Correlation between seasonal influenza and meteorological factors: a systematic review

Corresponding author: Tao Chen, chentao@cnic.org.cn Luojing Zhou, luojing76@163.com

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